Jim Manzi’s Sensitive Dependence on Initial Observations (via  Modeled Behavior)

exactly my point.

Jim Manzi’s Sensitive Dependence on Initial Observations Jim Manzi says that unlike physics, social science can’t make any useful, non-obvious predications. Which is funny because I can tell you straight away what will happen to equity markets in response to major policy announcements like changes in interest rate targets and the failure of TARP to pass its first vote. Something, that didn’t appear obvious to the Congressmen who suddenly reversed course after the biggest single day loss in Dow history. … Read More

via  Modeled Behavior

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