Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed.
That has been the definition of forecasting found in Wikipedia. We all love crunching facts and numbers besides from distracting our minds with some creative thought bubble. We do not want to damage ourselves. We do not really want to risk ourselves. That’s our human nature.
Then we had a few enemies to face such as nature and the natural tendencies of everything happening in this world, to not become 100%stable. We sort of, hate unpredictability. As Macroeconomics would say, we’d always target for stability in everything we do whether it be financial stability (i.e. IMF, BSP) or developmental stability (i.e. WB).
That’s why forecasting has been present in human history. Whether it be in economics, operations management and science as well. Why would you think teachers require students to pass papers that need computing errors and recommendations to do better. We, as science majors, were also trained to combat errors and try to reduce it.
But there are other errors that goes up the notch. The battlefield has just been raised to a new level – dealing with casualties. It involves human life and maybe the entire human race. Public policy and Developmental Strategies try to improve our standard of living. Yes, we’ve always targeted ourselves to be better, faster, stronger, as Daft Punk would say.
Last month, President Noynoy got so fussed with Pag-Asa for the errors they have been giving us in weather forecasting. This type of forecasting should never be underestimated nor overestimated. Pag-asa may have done a lot of miscalculations but one cannot blame only the people in this type of situation.
Weather is known to be more unpredictable these days. Unpredictability is not our favorite word in the human survival dictionary. We want to predict things, thus the forecasting methods different majors study in their respective fields. But I guess for the people in the Philippines and may be Noynoy, they hate the possible image of death when forecasting such as this has gone bonkers.
Our equipments can do so much. Take a look at our research facilities. It is just incomparable to those found in our neighboring Asia countries. What more in the Western World? We are nothing much in the Science and Technology Research arena compared to them. Maybe we are only a small dot in that network.
President Noynoy – I trust that you are a economist, a qualitative and quantitative person. I also know that you want to serve us, the people. But why on earth are you punishing people like those in Pag-asa who are trying their best to forecast weather for our country? I know my science and I know that this is a weird direction we’re heading. It is a direction that does not sound pleasing to us, scientists or maybe just physicists. There aren’t much job offers for us here and being a meteorologist is one of the options after finishing a Physics degree. Please don’t kill the image of our discipline. It just bugs me to death that there might not be a possible future for us to continue it unless we go to the country’s vision on service and economics point of view all the time.
Sooner or later, we need to have fresh perspectives in our government and not just economists, political scientists or “wannabe’s”.